Anna Czapkiewicz

Faculty of Management, AGH University of Science and Technology, Krakow, Poland;

Statistical Office in Kielce: Centre for Non-observed Economy Studies,

Poland

czapkiewicz@agh.edu.pl

ORCID 0000-0002-6144-8381

Estimating the shadow economy in enterprises: A new approach

Małgorzata Sobieraj

Statistical Office in Kielce, Centre for Non-observed Economy Studies,

Poland

M.Sobieraj@stat.gov.pl

Katarzyna Brzozowska-Rup

Faculty of Management and Computer Modelling, Kielce University of Technology, Poland;

Statistical Office in Kielce, Centre for Non-observed Economy Studies,

Poland

K.Brzozowska-Rup@stat.gov.pl 

ORCID 0000-0003-1231-8027

Abstract. This article presents an innovative method for estimating the size of the shadow economy in microenterprises that combines the use of survey data and an econometric model specifically designed for this purpose. The main premise of the proposed approach is that expected gross income is calculated as revenue minus the costs of generating income. The analysis focuses on survey responses regarding the perceptions of satisfactory income and satisfactory revenue, and estimated costs. An econometric model (MUM) was constructed to capture respondents declarations and identify hidden components of income. The method was empirically tested using data from the Statistics Poland (GUS), focusing on microenterprises with 1 to 9 employees. The analysis covered six sectors based on the Polish Classification of Economic Activities (PKD). The results, which are consistent with official shadow economy estimates published by GUS, suggest that the proposed methodology can serve as a valuable tool for the early-stage analysis of the shadow economy in microenterprises.

Received: July, 2024

1st Revision: May, 2025

Accepted: June, 2025

DOI: 10.14254/2071-8330.2025/18-2/15

JEL Classification: G15, G17

Keywords: shadow economy, Multiple Ultrastructural Model, survey