Natalja Gurvitš

Department of Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology

Estonia

natalja.gurvits@ttu.ee

Financial variables influencing the performance of refined crude oil products at North-West European cargo markets

Jiří Strouhal

Department of Finance and Accounting, Škoda Auto University Mladá Boleslav

Czech Republic

jiri.strouhal@savs.cz

Artem Saia

Blue Mountain OÜ

Estonia

artem.saia@gmail.com

Inna Sidorova

ACMA/GCMA

United Kingdom

sidoroinn@gmail.com

Abstract. The main aim of this paper is to empirically examine the influence of the selected financial indicators on the prices of refined oil products at European cargo market using the VAR regression model. In order to test the influence of well-known market indicators – EUR/USD exchange rates, EURIBOR interest rates and Euro Stoxx 50 index on oil products’ prices, the weekly data was collected for the four-year period. The authors decided to test the impact of the selected data on the following four oil products traded at the physical North-West European market: Gasoline 10 PPM (GSLN10), ULSD 10 PPM, Diesel 10 PPM NWE, Gasoil 0.1%. The results demonstrate that the coefficients of EUR/USD exchange rates as well as Euribor rates are statistically significant, whereas the coefficient of ESX50 index is not significant. These results follow the trend, since it is quite common that increase in the EUR/USD exchange rate leads to increase in oil products’ prices.

Received: February, 2017

1st Revision: August, 2017

Accepted: May, 2018

DOI: 10.14254/2071-8330.2018/11-2/17

JEL Classification: G30

Keywords: crude oil prices, regression analysis, volatility, EURIBOR, exchange rates, VAR