Erez Cohen

Ariel University,

Israel

erez@ariel.ac.il

From Arab Spring to Economic Winter –

examination of the relationship between politics and economics as evident in the syrian civil war during 2011-2015

Abstract. This study emphasizes the relationship between politics and economics as evident in the Syrian civil war by presenting the economic consequences of the drawn-out civil war in Syria and examining the effect of this war on the country’s major economic indicators during 2011-2014. The research findings show that the continued fighting in Syria has had a harmful effect on the local economy and as a result the GDP is declining and its structure is changing, unemployment is on the rise, and the budgetary deficit is growing. This effect is also examined in comparison with Egypt and Libya, countries that underwent internal conflict and governmental chaos, reaching the conclusion that the Syrian economy was more deeply affected by the unstable security situation than the former countries. Syria’s economy is disintegrating both internally and externally, gradually becoming irrelevant for global trade in general and for the oil trade in particular and losing its place to its competitors in this field. It is also encountering particularly acute internal political and socioeconomic problems, raises doubts as to Syria’s ability to survive this volatile period and to sustain its government in the future. Nonetheless, it appears that Syria’s slight chances of economic recovery depend primarily (or even exclusively) on international interests, further clarifying the claim concerning the major role and impact of external factors on a post-war country’s chances of economic recovery and stabilization.

Received: September, 2015

1st Revision: December, 2015

Accepted: January, 2016

DOI: 10.14254/2071-8330.2016/9-1/1

JEL Classification: P16, N45

Keywords: Civil War, Syria, Political Economy