Behzod Tagaev

National University of Uzbekistan named after Mirzo Ulugbek,

Uzbekistan

btagaev@nuu.uz

ORCID 0000-0002-4065-9817

Foreign investment and structural transformation in mineral-rich emerging economies

Romualdas Ginevičius

Faculty of Public Management and Business,

Mykolas Romeris University, Vilnius, Lithuania

romualdas.ginevicius@mruni.eu

ORCID 0009-0007-0753-6608

Marek Csabay

Faculty of Economics and Entrepreneurship, Pan-European University, Bratislava, Slovakia

marek.csabay@paneurouni.com

ORCID 0000-0001-6693-7750

József Popp

Doctoral School of Management and Business Administration, 

John von Neumann University, Hungary

Faculty of Applied Sciences, WSB University

Dabrowa Górnicza, Poland

popp.jozsef@nje.hu

ORCID 0000-0003-0848-4591

Abstract. The energy transition has intensified competition for critical minerals, but it remains unclear whether foreign capital promotes structural transformation in mineral-rich economies. This paper examines 30 emerging and developing economies from 2000 to 2024, treating Central Asia as a comparative regional group. Economy-wide structural transformation is measured by manufacturing value added as a share of GDP. Two-way fixed-effects models use lagged regressors, country-clustered standard errors, and Driscoll–Kraay inference, while AidData records distinguish upstream extraction from midstream processing finance. Aggregate FDI shows no statistically detectable average association with manufacturing value added; the estimate remains stable across robustness checks, and its 90% confidence interval lies within ±0.10 percentage-point equivalence bounds. A positive interaction with tertiary enrollment appears only in the full sample and is not robust after 2015. Project-stage estimates are exploratory because midstream variation is limited to seven country-year observations and is sensitive to Indonesia. Central Asia does not exhibit a statistically different FDI–manufacturing association despite weaker institutions. The findings indicate that aggregate inflows reveal little about structural transformation and that investment composition and domestic linkages warrant more direct measurement.

Received: August, 2025

1st Revision: May, 2026

Accepted: September, 2026

DOI: 10.14254/2071-8330.2026/19-3/9

JEL Classification: F21, F23, L72, O13

Keywords: critical minerals, foreign direct investment, economic diversification, energy transition, mineral value chains, Central Asia, emerging markets