Tetiana L. Mostenska

Department of Administrative Management and Foreign Economic Activity, 

National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine,

Ukraine 

t.mostenska@nubip.edu.ua 

ORCID 0000-0002-2112-4745

Identification and assessment of external strategic risks for Ukrainian enterprises during martial law

Katarina Valaskova

Department of Economics, University of Zilina,

Slovakia

katarina.valaskova@uniza.sk

ORCID 0000-0003-4223-7519

Natalia Skopenko

Department of Management and Administration, 

National University of Food Technologies,

Ukraine 

skopnata67@gmail.com 

ORCID 0000-0003-4540-3455

Marek Nagy

Department of Economics, University of Zilina,

Slovakia 

marek.nagy@uniza.sk

ORCID 0000-0003-0740-6268

Iryna Severyna

Department of Business Economics, 

Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv,

Ukraine 

iryna.yevsieieva@knu.ua 

ORCID 0000-0003-4540-3455

Abstract. Understanding regional differentiation in business risks and their impact on enterprise operations is essential for effective strategic planning and risk management in uncertain environments. The purpose of the article is to identify and assess external business risks affecting food industry enterprises across different regions of Ukraine. The research employed a qualitative, expert-based approach using in-depth interviews. External risks were identified and assessed on a scale from 0 to 1, while their impact was evaluated using coefficients ranging from −1 (threat) to +1 (opportunity). The level of agreement among experts was measured using Kendall’s coefficient of concordance (W), and group evaluations were calculated as arithmetic means. The sample consisted of 74 respondents, including food industry professionals, academic staff, logistics specialists, and representatives of related sectors. Experts assessed regional business risk levels, the probability of specific risks, and the impact of external environmental events on food industry enterprises. The developed regional risk matrix enables the prioritization of risks and supports the formulation of targeted risk-mitigation measures. The study contributes by providing a structured tool for assessing external risks under conditions of high uncertainty and by demonstrating how elevated risk levels significantly shorten enterprise planning horizons and influence confidence in strategic decision-making.

Received: June, 2025

1st Revision: March, 2026

Accepted: May, 2026

DOI: 10.14254/2071-8330.2026/19-3/2

JEL Classification: D81, G32, M10

Keywords: risks, strategy, risk events, strategic risks, expert evaluation, martial law